SpaceX Makes Adjustments For Crew Dragon’s Future

SpaceX’s Crew Dragon has been a resounding success, both for SpaceX itself and for NASA’s Commercial Crew Program. After ending a 9-year gap in the United States’ crewed launch capability, the spacecraft has become the de facto leader in the developing commercial orbital economy. In addition to carrying nine NASA crew rotations to the International Space Station, Crew Dragon has flown five privately-funded missions to date, with crews ranging from international astronauts to SpaceX’s own employees.

However, as the existing fleet reaches its originally envisioned limits, this success has created strain for SpaceX. The company is still working to complete what may be the final spacecraft in the fleet, and is hoping to increase the flight limit for each vehicle to meet demand. As Crew Dragon approaches five years of operation, what does the future of the system look like?

Two Systems

NASA’s Commercial Crew Program sought to create two independent systems to restore domestic crew launch capability to the United States after the retirement of the Space Shuttle. SpaceX and Boeing each plan to reuse their capsules, enabling NASA’s needs to be met with fewer spacecraft, much like the Shuttle before them. SpaceX’s fleet of Crew Dragons are currently rated for five flights each, while each of Boeing’s Starliners could fly up to ten times. Ideally, each ISS rotation would see two vehicles available: the nominal spacecraft and a member of the opposite system, able to provide redundant access should the need arise.

Crew Dragon was the first to fly crew in 2020; just months before, Starliner’s first uncrewed test flight failed to reach the ISS. Due to this and other setbacks, Crew Dragon has remained the sole pillar of American crew access to the ISS.  Starliner finally flew its first crew to the ISS earlier this year, but issues encountered on orbit prompted NASA to return the spacecraft without astronauts. The ramifications of this decision on Starliner’s path to certification remain unclear. In the meantime, Crew Dragon continues to work overtime, and is now expected to cover a tenth rotation before Starliner becomes operational.

The Dragon Fleet

Each of the second-generation Dragon spacecraft is given a serial number in the format C2XX, including both Crew and Cargo Dragons. Three prototype Crew Dragons were built as C201–C203, and two more are no longer in active service: C204, which was destroyed in a test after flying Demo-1 to the ISS, and C205, which flew only the in-flight abort test.

The current operational fleet consists of:

C206 Endeavour, which first flew Demo-2,

C207 Resilience, which first flew Crew-1,

C210 Endurance, which debuted for Crew-3, and

C212 Freedom, which first flew Crew-4.

C208, C209, and C211 are unnamed Cargo Dragons. SpaceX originally halted production in March 2022 after Freedom, capping the fleet at four Crew Dragons. However, just months later, in November of 2022, SpaceX revealed their intent to build a fifth spacecraft, C213, citing increased government and commercial demand. Still, the company has been clear that it prefers to fly out a fixed Dragon fleet as it pivots its resources towards Starship, the jack-of-all-trades envisioned to serve all of SpaceX’s future needs.In 2020, NASA and SpaceX began studying reuse of Crew and Cargo Dragons for NASA missions, with an early target of five flights per spacecraft. Flight leaders, those with the highest number of flights, would not be used for NASA missions, a policy that also extended to the company’s Falcon 9 boosters.

Today, Endeavour is that flight leader, and is currently docked to the ISS on its fifth flight, NASA’s Crew-8 mission—an obvious departure from older policy. Still, the spacecraft is not known to have future flights planned, and would be expected to retire upon its return. Meanwhile, Resilience, Endurance, and Freedom have each completed three flights.

However, in March of this year, NASA and SpaceX expressed their interest in extending the lifespan of each Crew Dragon up to 15 flights. This will depend on the outcome of an ongoing certification campaign, including analysis of Endeavour once it returns to Earth. This could mean Endeavour and its kin may continue to fly well into the latter half of the decade.

This extension would be prudent, because there is another layer of complexity at play. Only one Dragon spacecraft is currently rated to fly NASA crew rotations to the ISS: Freedom.

Departures

With Crew Dragon, SpaceX has secured a coveted place in commercial spaceflight: the first provider to offer orbital crew missions to private customers, independently of the government. For these missions, SpaceX has free reign to customize the vehicle as it pleases, to suit its own needs or those of its customers. For example, after flying Crew-1, Resilience had its docking port replaced with a transparent “cupola” dome for the private Inspiration4 mission. Subsequently, Resilience received an airlock hatch to support EVAs during Polaris Dawn.

But these changes are not entirely without consequence. As reported by The Verge in 2021, NASA will not fly ISS crews aboard any modified Crew Dragon. This policy excludes Resilience from future ISS rotations due to the changes SpaceX has made to support other customers.

In August, SpaceX revealed the upcoming Fram2 mission, a private research flight to a high-inclination orbit that will study the Earth’s poles. In a poetic twist, Fram2, named for the historic polar exploration vessel Fram, will fly aboard Endurance, which also shares its name with a polar ship. Like Resilience, Endurance will receive a cupola for the mission—and will likewise exit NASA’s approved ISS rotation fleet.

Between Endeavour reaching its current flight limit and the departure of Resilience and Endurance, Freedom is the only Dragon spacecraft currently available to fly NASA astronauts, and is accordingly slated to fly Crew-9 later this month.

This simple fact places pressure on SpaceX to make the most of its remaining NASA-certified fleet. Analysis of Endeavour to support a lifetime extension will likely continue into next year. Meanwhile, the fifth Crew Dragon, the unnamed C213, is still under construction. C213 was originally planned to fly the eleventh United States Crew Vehicle slot (USCV-11) late next year, while Starliner would fly its first rotation, Starliner-1, as USCV-10. But the schedule disruption caused by the uncrewed return of Starliner CFT has compelled SpaceX to support the 10th slot as Crew-10 in February of 2025, six months earlier than planned.

A Future of Dragons

Not much is known about the status of C213. At its announcement in 2022, the spacecraft was planned to be operational in 2024, though until very recently its first flight was set for late 2025. If for any reason the spacecraft cannot be completed and certified before Crew-10, SpaceX could potentially push to use Endeavour to bridge the gap, pending its postflight analysis.

In either case, the margin will be close to bring a second Crew Dragon back into service for NASA. If SpaceX and NASA approve additional flights for each vehicle, the pressure will be significantly reduced; this would put Crew Dragon on even footing with Starliner, as Boeing plans to complete its ISS obligations using just two spacecraft. Furthermore, if Starliner is able to begin its rotations next year, NASA-certified Dragon spacecraft will only need to fly once a year.Still, questions remain for Dragon’s manifest. While SpaceX will most likely be able to restore its ISS fleet to two spacecraft in short order, commercial customers complicate the situation. Axiom Space’s fourth private astronaut mission, Ax-4, is set to launch to the ISS next spring, likely requiring either Freedom or C213. Vast Space’s Haven-1 station could launch late next year, and Crew Dragon is on the books to transport its first crew. As a private mission, Vast-1 could also use Resilience or Endurance, though either would need to be re-equipped with a standard docking port.

Looking even further ahead, Dragon’s prospects seem bright. In four years as the only American system capable of sending crew to Low Earth Orbit, Crew Dragon has garnered considerable attention from other commercial players. Future LEO destinations, such as Axiom Station, Starlab, Orbital Reef, or Vast stations, have an exceptionally well-proven option in SpaceX, whereas Boeing’s troubled Starliner may yet struggle to become commercially attractive. Crew Dragon has also demonstrated its utility to conduct free-flying research, which NASA anticipates will be a key part of the commercial LEO ecosystem.

With such bountiful demand, will five Crew Dragons be enough? The future of humans in LEO is hard to know, but it seems the next generation of commercial activity could persist for decades. Crew Dragon is a shoo-in for this market, yet SpaceX’s attention lies elsewhere. Starship is the company’s mission statement incarnate, but its usefulness as a crew shuttle is tenuous. Much larger than the Space Shuttle, and outsized for even the most ambitious commercial stations, Starship is an awkward fit for Dragon’s niche. Factor in an uncertain schedule and avant-garde risk posture, and Starship seems unlikely to dethrone SpaceX’s golden goose anytime soon.

For now, Crew Dragon’s place in the world is clear. Despite the challenges of the past, Crew Dragon has but one final maze to navigate as the year draws to a close. After years bearing the load of United States crew access, the Commercial Crew Program’s original mission of dissimilar redundancy may finally come to pass next year, and Crew Dragon may in turn relax into its final legacy serving the ISS.

Outlined and edited by Scarlet Dominik