New Glenn on the Roll

Blue Origin’s New Glenn rocket has made it to Launch Complex 36 ahead of the massive rocket’s inaugural flight. Just over an hour and a half past midnight on Wednesday, October 30th, 2024, the first fully assembled GS1 (Glenn Stage 1) was rolled out of Blue Origin’s Rocket Factory and began a 23 mile, multi-hour journey aboard its football field-length transporter, to paraphrase Blue Origin CEO David Limp. The upper stage and fairing hardware for New Glenn’s inaugural launch is already ready and waiting at LC-36. The event is the latest of a series of significant hardware milestones for New Glenn which have occurred since Space Scout’s last reporting on the massive rocket. 

Among them, New Glenn’s first booster has been given an official name, “So You’re Telling Me There’s a Chance,” in reference to Blue Origin’s intention to attempt landing, recovery, and potentially reuse for the company’s first GS1 on its first flight. While a successful landing would be the second successful recovery of a new reusable launcher this year, doing so on the launch system’s first ever flight would be unprecedented among the modern generation of reusable launch vehicles, and would represent a first-flight success comparable to the Space Shuttle’s STS-1 or Soviet Union’s sole flight of Buran. “We’re going for it, and humbly submit having good confidence in landing it,” explained David Limp in the post where the name was announced, “but like I said a couple of weeks ago, if we don’t, we’ll learn and keep trying until we do.”

While GS1 was progressing through its assembly process, Blue Origin was busy at their LC-36 facilities as well. On September 26th, Blue Origin successfully hotfired the twin BE-3U engines which power the GS2 upper stage. This completed testing for the first flight upper stage, while verifying the launch pad’s acoustic suppression system and hydrolox infrastructure. GS2 was then returned to the LC-36 Horizontal Integration Facility to have the BE-3U nozzle extensions integrated. Because GS2 is designed to operate in the vacuum of space, but logically can only be static fired on the ground, the large vacuum-optimised engine bells are only added after the engines verify their ability to fire successfully. While Blue Origin has not provided an update on the status of this final integration work, it is expected to be already complete.

Also occurring while awaiting GS1’s rollover to LC-36 was the launch of NS-27, Blue Origin’s latest New Shepard flight, which debuted the program’s first new vehicle in many years and second ever human-rated vehicle. NS-27 flew successfully, and carried a new navigation system, referred to as NS Navi. David Limp described the system in a post on X as scalable to both New Shepard and New Glenn, with NS-27 providing a performance evaluation for its ability to guide and land a reusable booster.

With both GS1 and GS2 now under the same roof, the final steps to launch become much clearer. New Glenn’s first mission, NG-1, is no longer a matter of assembling hardware, but integration, testing, and perhaps most importantly: licensing. The next step for the launch vehicle will be the mating of its stages together, making the first New Glenn launch vehicle whole. David Limp has confirmed that following the full integration of the New Glenn vehicle, the vehicle will perform an integrated launch vehicle hotfiring, where the seven BE-4 engines on GS1 ignite while the rocket is on the launch pad. Following this hotfiring, New Glenn is expected to complete a Wet Dress Rehearsal, fully fueling the vehicle and proceeding through the prelaunch sequence. It is unclear if there will be a rollback to the HIF between these tests, or if New Glenn will remain on the pad until launch once it begins testing, though it likely depends on the results of these vital tests.

Above all else, even if it moves through its last legs of testing without any setbacks, New Glenn is not yet able to launch. Blue Origin is still waiting on the FAA licence which will allow them to launch New Glenn for the first time. It is not yet known if the licence will allow for all future New Glenn launches or will only allow NG-1 specifically; neither option can be discounted with information currently available. Regardless of specifics, New Glenn won’t leave the ground until it is approved to do so. Christian Davenport, a reporter for The Washington Post, has stated in a post on X that he has heard good progress is being made, but “getting (the licence) in time for a November launch would be ‘tight.’”

If NG-1 is waiting on a licence that covers only the profile of its specific mission and doesn’t encompass New Glenn operations as a collective whole, then concerns over the timing of the FAA’s licensing may have a probable explanation. Prior to NASA’s decision to delay the EscaPADE mission’s launch as previously covered, Blue Origin was targeting two launches for New Glenn in 2024, with EscaPADE in October and a second launch in December. After the decision, Blue Origin shifted the manifest, with NG-1 adopting the payload and goals of what was previously NG-2. If Blue Origin was seeking to licence these launches with the FAA independently of each other, with NG-1 adopting a mission previously scheduled for December, it would align with the apparent “tight” licensing process for a November launch. This is, of course, speculation, and there could be any number of reasons for the FAA to take longer than expected depending on the information provided to them over the course of the licensing process.

In a post on X regarding New Glenn’s new plan for 2024, Blue Origin described that “New Glenn will carry Blue Ring technology and mark our first National Security Space Launch certification flight.” Now that New Glenn is potentially nearing this launch, specific details have not been forthcoming. Working with limited information, this statement does align with the goals of a previously announced Blue Origin mission. DarkSky-1, which aims to “demonstrate Blue Ring’s mission operation capabilities and core flight systems on an upcoming Defense Innovation Unit-sponsored launch,” is a good match with NG-1. No official statement connecting the two missions has been made, and the blogpost on Blue Origin’s website regarding DarkSky-1 mentions that the launch provider and timeframe has not been disclosed.

As New Glenn approaches its final milestones, a launch before the end of 2024 seems increasingly possible, but such a launch is not guaranteed yet. Final challenges on the launch pad and in the regulatory space still need to be passed before New Glenn can experience its first terminal count. Regardless of when New Glenn flies for the first time, however, Blue Origin continues to make good progress towards their first orbital flight. NG-1 is the beginning of a new era for the company, which aims to use New Glenn to carry cargo and human astronauts, build a space station with industry partners, and land humans on the Moon under NASA’s Artemis Program.